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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: University of Bath 1 v University of Bristol Chiefs (Thu 30 Nov 2023)Match played between Anson Wong (home) and Jack 'The Sniper' Webb (away).Match won by Anson Wong. Result: 9-11,13-11,11-7,12-10:11-6,11-5,11-5:11-3,12-10,12-10:11-8,11-3,5-11,11-3:11-9,3-11,8-11,10-12. Starting level for Anson Wong: 5,575, level confidence: 79%. Set manually. Starting level for Jack 'The Sniper' Webb: 3,297, level confidence: 47%. Anson Wong to win as he is currently playing 69% better than Jack 'The Sniper' Webb. Anson Wong won 75% of the games and 54% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Anson Wong played 22% better than Jack 'The Sniper' Webb in this match. As Anson Wong has played below his allowed range at 4,334, his level reduction is 7.9% before damping. On the assumption that Anson Wong would normally have been playing at level 5,156 (based on typical behaviour), Jack 'The Sniper' Webb played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 13%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6% and 10.1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Anson Wong changes to -3.5% and Jack 'The Sniper' Webb changes to +10.1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Anson Wong becomes -1.9% and for Jack 'The Sniper' Webb becomes +4.2%. Given Anson Wong's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.4% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2023/2024' so the adjustment for Anson Wong is -1.4% and for Jack 'The Sniper' Webb is +3.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Anson Wong: 89%, Jack 'The Sniper' Webb: 69%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Anson Wong: 76%, Jack 'The Sniper' Webb: 58%. A final adjustment of +9.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Anson Wong: 6,576, level confidence: 76%. Final level for Jack 'The Sniper' Webb: 3,427, level confidence: 58%. Notes
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