|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: Redland Dodos v University of Bristol Chiefs (Wed 15 Nov 2023)Match played between James Jamieson-Black (home) and Jack 'Sleepy' Pegler (away).Match won by James Jamieson-Black. Result: 11-6,11-2,11-6. Starting level for James Jamieson-Black: 3,002, level confidence: 70%. Starting level for Jack 'Sleepy' Pegler: 1,744, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. James Jamieson-Black to win as he is currently playing 72% better than Jack 'Sleepy' Pegler. James Jamieson-Black won all of the games and 70% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Jamieson-Black played 136% better than Jack 'Sleepy' Pegler in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Jamieson-Black actually played at a level of 3,513 and Jack 'Sleepy' Pegler at a level of 1,490. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 13% and 13% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Jamieson-Black changes to +13% and Jack 'Sleepy' Pegler changes to -12%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Jamieson-Black becomes +5.2% and for Jack 'Sleepy' Pegler becomes -5.9%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2023/2024' so the adjustment for James Jamieson-Black is +3.9% and for Jack 'Sleepy' Pegler is -4.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Jamieson-Black: 84%, Jack 'Sleepy' Pegler: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Jamieson-Black: 71%, Jack 'Sleepy' Pegler: 73%. A final adjustment of -0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for James Jamieson-Black: 3,109, level confidence: 71%. Final level for Jack 'Sleepy' Pegler: 1,656, level confidence: 73%. Notes
|