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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: University of Bath 1 v Redland Dodos (Thu 09 Nov 2023)Match played between Anson Wong (home) and James Jamieson-Black (away).Match won by Anson Wong. Result: 11-8,11-8,11-7. Starting level for Anson Wong: 5,480, level confidence: 58%. Starting level for James Jamieson-Black: 2,942, level confidence: 67%. Anson Wong to win as he is currently playing 86% better than James Jamieson-Black. Anson Wong won all of the games and 59% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Anson Wong played 47% better than James Jamieson-Black in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Anson Wong was taking it easy by anything up to 10%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 4,310 and 5,480 without affecting his level. In this case, Anson Wong played at level 4,620 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Anson Wong would normally have been playing at level 4,925 (based on typical behaviour), James Jamieson-Black played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.6%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.8% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Anson Wong changes to 0% and James Jamieson-Black changes to +4.1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Anson Wong becomes 0% and for James Jamieson-Black becomes +2.4%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2023/2024' so the adjustment for Anson Wong is 0% and for James Jamieson-Black is +1.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Anson Wong: 76%, James Jamieson-Black: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Anson Wong: 67%, James Jamieson-Black: 73%. A final adjustment of +1.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Anson Wong: 5,629, level confidence: 67%. Final level for James Jamieson-Black: 3,002, level confidence: 73%. Notes
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