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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: University of Bath 1 v Weston String Strokers (Wed 15 Nov 2023)Match played between Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan (home) and Tom Lane (away).Match won by Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan. Result: 11-8,11-8,11-4. Starting level for Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan: 5,502, level confidence: 61%. Starting level for Tom Lane: 2,636, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan to win as he is currently playing 109% better than Tom Lane. Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan won all of the games and 62% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan played 65% better than Tom Lane in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan was taking it easy by anything up to 14%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 3,968 and 5,502 without affecting his level. In this case, Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan played at level 4,549 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan would normally have been playing at level 4,758 (based on typical behaviour), Tom Lane played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.6%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.2% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan changes to 0% and Tom Lane changes to +2.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan becomes 0% and for Tom Lane becomes +1.9%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2023/2024' so the adjustment for Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan is 0% and for Tom Lane is +1.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan: 78%, Tom Lane: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan: 70%, Tom Lane: 75%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan: 5,494, level confidence: 70%. Final level for Tom Lane: 2,672, level confidence: 75%. Notes
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