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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: Weston String Strokers v University of Bristol Chiefs (Wed 18 Oct 2023)Match played between George 'Warm-Up' Weston (home) and Ben 'Burger' Knight (away).Match won by George 'Warm-Up' Weston. Result: 11-8,11-5,11-6. Starting level for George 'Warm-Up' Weston: 3,540, level confidence: 48%. Starting level for Ben 'Burger' Knight: 2,579, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. George 'Warm-Up' Weston to win as he is currently playing 37% better than Ben 'Burger' Knight. George 'Warm-Up' Weston won all of the games and 63% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that George 'Warm-Up' Weston played 74% better than Ben 'Burger' Knight in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like George 'Warm-Up' Weston actually played at a level of 3,982 and Ben 'Burger' Knight at a level of 2,293. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.6% and 10.6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for George 'Warm-Up' Weston changes to +10.6% and Ben 'Burger' Knight changes to -6.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for George 'Warm-Up' Weston becomes +4.3% and for Ben 'Burger' Knight becomes -3.4%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2023/2024' so the adjustment for George 'Warm-Up' Weston is +3.2% and for Ben 'Burger' Knight is -2.5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. George 'Warm-Up' Weston: 69%, Ben 'Burger' Knight: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. George 'Warm-Up' Weston: 61%, Ben 'Burger' Knight: 77%. A final adjustment of -2.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for George 'Warm-Up' Weston: 3,543, level confidence: 61%. Final level for Ben 'Burger' Knight: 2,486, level confidence: 77%. Notes
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