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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 3: Bradley Stoke Squash Club B v Workout Harbourside 3 (Wed 11 Oct 2023)Match played between Andrew Blake (home) and Daniel Reeve (away).Match won by Daniel Reeve. Result: 17-19,5-15,8-15:14-16,9-15,8-15:12-15,9-15,9-15:15-9,15-9,15-7:15-13,14-16,7-15,9-15. Starting level for Andrew Blake: 1,693, level confidence: 64%. Starting level for Daniel Reeve: 2,006, level confidence: 68%. Daniel Reeve to win as he is currently playing 18% better than Andrew Blake. Daniel Reeve won all of the games and 62% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 63% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daniel Reeve played 63% better than Andrew Blake in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Daniel Reeve actually played at a level of 2,355 and Andrew Blake at a level of 1,442. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daniel Reeve changes to +15% and Andrew Blake changes to -16%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daniel Reeve becomes +6.7% and for Andrew Blake becomes -7.5%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2023/2024' so the adjustment for Daniel Reeve is +5% and for Andrew Blake is -5.5%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Andrew Blake is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daniel Reeve: 82%, Andrew Blake: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daniel Reeve: 70%, Andrew Blake: 68%. A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Andrew Blake: 1,615, level confidence: 68%. Final level for Daniel Reeve: 2,111, level confidence: 70%. Notes
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