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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 6: Kingsdown Summer Steeds v University of Bath 5 (Wed 08 Nov 2023)Match played between Gareth Slade (home) and Luke Relph (away).Match won by Gareth Slade. Result: 15-13,15-8,15-9. Starting level for Gareth Slade: 654, level confidence: 69%. Starting level for Luke Relph: 317, level confidence: 36%. Gareth Slade to win as he is currently playing 106% better than Luke Relph. Gareth Slade won all of the games and 60% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gareth Slade played 52% better than Luke Relph in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Gareth Slade was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 475 and 654 without affecting his level. In this case, Gareth Slade played at level 522 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Gareth Slade would normally have been playing at level 568 (based on typical behaviour), Luke Relph played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.7%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gareth Slade changes to 0% and Luke Relph changes to +6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gareth Slade becomes 0% and for Luke Relph becomes +4.5%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2023/2024' so the adjustment for Gareth Slade is 0% and for Luke Relph is +3.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gareth Slade: 83%, Luke Relph: 60%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gareth Slade: 71%, Luke Relph: 52%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Gareth Slade: 654, level confidence: 71%. Final level for Luke Relph: 327, level confidence: 52%. Notes
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