|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesBaD Premier League: Redland Anacondas v Avon West / Centre For Sport - K1 (Tue 24 Oct 2023)Match played between Harry Anderson (home) and Ameeshenraj Chandaran (away).Match won by Ameeshenraj Chandaran. Result: 9-11,11-13,9-11:9-11,7-11,11-9,8-11:11-8,9-11,11-6,11-7:6-11,11-7,11-7,8-11,12-10:11-3,11-2,6-6. Starting level for Harry Anderson: 15,578, level confidence: 59%. Starting level for Ameeshenraj Chandaran: 26,167, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Ameeshenraj Chandaran to win as he is currently playing 68% better than Harry Anderson. Ameeshenraj Chandaran won all of the games and 55% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ameeshenraj Chandaran played 32% better than Harry Anderson in this match. As Ameeshenraj Chandaran has played below his allowed range at 21,287, his level reduction is 3.5% before damping. On the assumption that Ameeshenraj Chandaran would normally have been playing at level 24,243 (based on typical behaviour), Harry Anderson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.6%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.7% and 6.6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ameeshenraj Chandaran changes to -2.1% and Harry Anderson changes to +6.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ameeshenraj Chandaran becomes -0.9% and for Harry Anderson becomes +2.1%. Given Ameeshenraj Chandaran's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 49% has been applied to his level change. Given Harry Anderson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 31% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2023/2024' so the adjustment for Ameeshenraj Chandaran is -0.4% and for Harry Anderson is +1.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ameeshenraj Chandaran: 86%, Harry Anderson: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ameeshenraj Chandaran: 76%, Harry Anderson: 68%. A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Harry Anderson: 15,763, level confidence: 68%. Final level for Ameeshenraj Chandaran: 26,041, level confidence: 76%. Notes
|