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Login: | Explaining level changesBaD Premier League: Avon West / Centre For Sport - K1 v Redland B (Tue 06 Feb 2024)Match played between Ameeshenraj Chandaran (home) and Ioan Sharpe (away).Match won by Ameeshenraj Chandaran. Result: 11-7,11-3,11-6:12-10,11-7,11-9:12-10,11-9,11-5:10-12,7-11,11-1,11-4,11-3:11-8,8-11,13-11,11-5. Starting level for Ameeshenraj Chandaran: 24,455, level confidence: 56%. Starting level for Ioan Sharpe: 15,032, level confidence: 59%. Ameeshenraj Chandaran to win as he is currently playing 63% better than Ioan Sharpe. Ameeshenraj Chandaran won all of the games and 67% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ameeshenraj Chandaran played 106% better than Ioan Sharpe in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ameeshenraj Chandaran actually played at a level of 27,535 and Ioan Sharpe at a level of 13,350. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.7% and 9.7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ameeshenraj Chandaran changes to +9.7% and Ioan Sharpe changes to -9.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ameeshenraj Chandaran becomes +2.6% and for Ioan Sharpe becomes -2.8%. Given Ameeshenraj Chandaran's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 47% has been applied to his level change. Given Ioan Sharpe's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 29% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2023/2024' so the adjustment for Ameeshenraj Chandaran is +1.3% and for Ioan Sharpe is -1.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ameeshenraj Chandaran: 75%, Ioan Sharpe: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ameeshenraj Chandaran: 67%, Ioan Sharpe: 68%. A final adjustment of +3.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Ameeshenraj Chandaran: 25,338, level confidence: 67%. Final level for Ioan Sharpe: 15,504, level confidence: 68%. Notes
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