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Login: | Explaining level changesBaD Premier League: Workout Harbourside v Redland B (Tue 27 Feb 2024)Match played between Yasshmita Jadishkumar (home) and Ben Macdonald (away).Match won by Yasshmita Jadishkumar. Result: 13-11,9-11,11-6,11-7. Starting level for Yasshmita Jadishkumar: 6,216, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Starting level for Ben Macdonald: 6,130, level confidence: 46%. Yasshmita Jadishkumar to win as she is currently playing 1% better than Ben Macdonald. Yasshmita Jadishkumar won 75% of the games and 56% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 26% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Yasshmita Jadishkumar played 25% better than Ben Macdonald in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Yasshmita Jadishkumar actually played at a level of 6,908 and Ben Macdonald at a level of 5,516. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 11% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Yasshmita Jadishkumar changes to +6.7% and Ben Macdonald changes to -11.1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Yasshmita Jadishkumar becomes +2.7% and for Ben Macdonald becomes -3.9%. Given Yasshmita Jadishkumar's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 5% has been applied to her level change. Given Ben Macdonald's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.6% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2023/2024' so the adjustment for Yasshmita Jadishkumar is +1.9% and for Ben Macdonald is -2.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Yasshmita Jadishkumar: 88%, Ben Macdonald: 68%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Yasshmita Jadishkumar: 79%, Ben Macdonald: 61%. A final adjustment of +3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Yasshmita Jadishkumar: 6,687, level confidence: 79%. Final level for Ben Macdonald: 5,998, level confidence: 61%. Notes
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