|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesTomasz Staruzyk v Nick 'Or Tin' Benson (Thu 23 Nov 2023)Match won by Nick 'Or Tin' Benson. Result: 8-11,4-11,6-11.Starting level for Tomasz Staruzyk: 2,734, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Starting level for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 4,880, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Nick 'Or Tin' Benson to win as he is currently playing 78% better than Tomasz Staruzyk. Nick 'Or Tin' Benson won all of the games and 65% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick 'Or Tin' Benson played 83% better than Tomasz Staruzyk in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nick 'Or Tin' Benson actually played at a level of 4,946 and Tomasz Staruzyk at a level of 2,698. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.3% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1% and 1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson changes to +1% and Tomasz Staruzyk changes to -1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson becomes +0.6% and for Tomasz Staruzyk becomes -0.7%. Given Nick 'Or Tin' Benson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 48% has been applied to his level change. Given Tomasz Staruzyk's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 14% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Green Boxes' so the adjustment for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson is 0% and for Tomasz Staruzyk is 0%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 84%, Tomasz Staruzyk: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 83%, Tomasz Staruzyk: 85%. A final adjustment of +2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Tomasz Staruzyk: 2,730, level confidence: 85%. Final level for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 5,081, level confidence: 83%. Notes
|