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Login: | Explaining level changesJames Jamieson-Black v Ben 'Thorpe Thorpe Thorpe' Thorpe (Fri 24 Nov 2023)Match won by Ben 'Thorpe Thorpe Thorpe' Thorpe. Result: 5-11,7-11,9-11.Starting level for James Jamieson-Black: 3,068, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Starting level for Ben 'Thorpe Thorpe Thorpe' Thorpe: 2,823, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. James Jamieson-Black to win as he is currently playing 9% better than Ben 'Thorpe Thorpe Thorpe' Thorpe. Ben 'Thorpe Thorpe Thorpe' Thorpe won all of the games and 61% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ben 'Thorpe Thorpe Thorpe' Thorpe played 56% better than James Jamieson-Black in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ben 'Thorpe Thorpe Thorpe' Thorpe actually played at a level of 3,681 and James Jamieson-Black at a level of 2,353. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 30% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ben 'Thorpe Thorpe Thorpe' Thorpe changes to +27% and James Jamieson-Black changes to -29%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ben 'Thorpe Thorpe Thorpe' Thorpe becomes +9.8% and for James Jamieson-Black becomes -10%. Given Ben 'Thorpe Thorpe Thorpe' Thorpe's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 15% has been applied to his level change. Given James Jamieson-Black's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 20% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Green Boxes' so the adjustment for Ben 'Thorpe Thorpe Thorpe' Thorpe is +4.3% and for James Jamieson-Black is -4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ben 'Thorpe Thorpe Thorpe' Thorpe: 88%, James Jamieson-Black: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ben 'Thorpe Thorpe Thorpe' Thorpe: 67%, James Jamieson-Black: 65%. A final adjustment of +2.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for James Jamieson-Black: 3,002, level confidence: 65%. Final level for Ben 'Thorpe Thorpe Thorpe' Thorpe: 3,032, level confidence: 67%. Notes
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