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Login: | Explaining level changesBen 'Burger' Knight v Nick 'Or Tin' Benson (Sat 16 Dec 2023)Match won by Nick 'Or Tin' Benson. Result: 9-11,4-11,2-11.Starting level for Ben 'Burger' Knight: 2,628, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Starting level for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 5,713, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Nick 'Or Tin' Benson to win as he is currently playing 117% better than Ben 'Burger' Knight. Nick 'Or Tin' Benson won all of the games and 69% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick 'Or Tin' Benson played 120% better than Ben 'Burger' Knight in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nick 'Or Tin' Benson actually played at a level of 5,747 and Ben 'Burger' Knight at a level of 2,612. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.6% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.3% and 0.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson changes to +0.3% and Ben 'Burger' Knight changes to -0.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson becomes +0.2% and for Ben 'Burger' Knight becomes 0%. Given Nick 'Or Tin' Benson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 60% has been applied to his level change. Given Ben 'Burger' Knight's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 12% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Green Boxes' so the adjustment for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson is 0% and for Ben 'Burger' Knight is 0%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 84%, Ben 'Burger' Knight: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 84%, Ben 'Burger' Knight: 88%. A final adjustment of -0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Ben 'Burger' Knight: 2,582, level confidence: 88%. Final level for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 5,704, level confidence: 84%. Notes
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