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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: University of Bath 1 v University of Bristol Ballers (Thu 29 Feb 2024)Match played between Anson Wong (home) and Nick 'Or Tin' Benson (away).Match won by Nick 'Or Tin' Benson. Result: 6-11,12-14,11-9,9-11:11-6,11-8,9-11,11-4:11-9,5-11,9-11,11-13:9-11,12-14,16-14,8-11:6-11,3-11,7-11. Starting level for Anson Wong: 5,838, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Starting level for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 6,179, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Nick 'Or Tin' Benson to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Anson Wong. Nick 'Or Tin' Benson won 75% of the games and 54% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick 'Or Tin' Benson played 23% better than Anson Wong in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nick 'Or Tin' Benson actually played at a level of 6,656 and Anson Wong at a level of 5,419. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.7% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson changes to +7.4% and Anson Wong changes to -7.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson becomes +2.9% and for Anson Wong becomes -3%. Given Nick 'Or Tin' Benson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.8% has been applied to his level change. Given Anson Wong's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3.5% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2023/2024' so the adjustment for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson is +2% and for Anson Wong is -2.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 86%, Anson Wong: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 80%, Anson Wong: 79%. A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Anson Wong: 5,713, level confidence: 79%. Final level for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 6,320, level confidence: 80%. Notes
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