|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: University of Bristol Ballers v Avon West / Centre For Sport - K1 (Thu 22 Feb 2024)Match played between Nick 'Or Tin' Benson (home) and Tom Gartner (away).Match won by Nick 'Or Tin' Benson. Result: 9-11,11-9,11-6,11-4:11-8,9-11,11-13,11-8,11-1:9-11,8-11,11-4,11-7,6-11:11-7,5-11,11-7,3-11,11-6:11-9,11-4,11-7. Starting level for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 6,053, level confidence: 57%. Starting level for Tom Gartner: 5,416, level confidence: 52%. Nick 'Or Tin' Benson to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Tom Gartner. Nick 'Or Tin' Benson won 75% of the games and 58% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 40% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick 'Or Tin' Benson played 30% better than Tom Gartner in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nick 'Or Tin' Benson actually played at a level of 6,527 and Tom Gartner at a level of 5,023. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.8% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson changes to +6.7% and Tom Gartner changes to -7.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson becomes +2.7% and for Tom Gartner becomes -3%. Given Nick 'Or Tin' Benson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.3% has been applied to his level change. Given Tom Gartner's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.8% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2023/2024' so the adjustment for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson is +1.9% and for Tom Gartner is -2.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 76%, Tom Gartner: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 70%, Tom Gartner: 67%. A final adjustment of +0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 6,179, level confidence: 70%. Final level for Tom Gartner: 5,359, level confidence: 67%. Notes
|