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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: University of Bath 1 v Lansdown 2 (Mon 19 Feb 2024)Match played between Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan (home) and Adam Conisbee (away).Match won by Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan. Result: 7-11,11-6,12-14,11-4,13-11. Starting level for Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan: 5,069, level confidence: 40%. Starting level for Adam Conisbee: 3,106, level confidence: 61%. Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan to win as he is currently playing 63% better than Adam Conisbee. Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan won 60% of the games and 54% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 17% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan played 12% better than Adam Conisbee in this match. As Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan has played below his allowed range at 3,883, his level reduction is 12% before damping. On the assumption that Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan would normally have been playing at level 4,731 (based on typical behaviour), Adam Conisbee played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 17%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.1% and 13% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan changes to -9.1% and Adam Conisbee changes to +8.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan becomes -3.5% and for Adam Conisbee becomes +3.8%. Given Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.3% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2023/2024' so the adjustment for Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan is -2.6% and for Adam Conisbee is +2.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan: 64%, Adam Conisbee: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan: 53%, Adam Conisbee: 64%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan: 4,933, level confidence: 53%. Final level for Adam Conisbee: 3,190, level confidence: 64%. Notes
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