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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: Workout Harbourside 2 v University of Bath 1 (Wed 20 Mar 2024)Match played between James Davenport (home) and Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan (away).Match won by Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan. Result: 5-11,7-11,7-11. Starting level for James Davenport: 2,943, level confidence: 37%. Starting level for Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan: 4,924, level confidence: 64%. Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan to win as he is currently playing 67% better than James Davenport. Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan won all of the games and 63% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan played 74% better than James Davenport in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan actually played at a level of 5,017 and James Davenport at a level of 2,889. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.9% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.4% and 1.5% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan changes to +0.8% and James Davenport changes to -1.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan becomes +0.5% and for James Davenport becomes -1%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2023/2024' so the adjustment for Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan is +0.4% and for James Davenport is -0.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan: 80%, James Davenport: 61%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan: 78%, James Davenport: 60%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for James Davenport: 2,917, level confidence: 60%. Final level for Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan: 4,935, level confidence: 78%. Notes
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