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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: Westbury David Lloyd A v University of Bristol Ballers (Wed 06 Mar 2024)Match played between Oli Hill (home) and Nick 'Or Tin' Benson (away).Match won by Nick 'Or Tin' Benson. Result: 4-11,8-11,9-11:13-11,11-6,7-11,2-11,2-11:9-11,8-11,6-11:11-6,11-7,11-3:12-10,8-11,11-3,7-11,11-6. Starting level for Oli Hill: 3,479, level confidence: 37%. Starting level for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 6,320, level confidence: 81%. Set manually. Nick 'Or Tin' Benson to win as he is currently playing 82% better than Oli Hill. Nick 'Or Tin' Benson won all of the games and 61% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick 'Or Tin' Benson played 56% better than Oli Hill in this match. In this case, Nick 'Or Tin' Benson played at level 5,582 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Nick 'Or Tin' Benson would normally have been playing at level 5,725 (based on typical behaviour), Oli Hill played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.6%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.9% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson changes to 0% and Oli Hill changes to +1.9%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson becomes 0% and for Oli Hill becomes +1.2%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2023/2024' so the adjustment for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson is 0% and for Oli Hill is +0.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 90%, Oli Hill: 61%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 83%, Oli Hill: 57%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Oli Hill: 3,506, level confidence: 57%. Final level for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 6,311, level confidence: 83%. Notes
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