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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: University of Bath 1 v Avon West / Centre For Sport - K1 (Wed 06 Mar 2024)Match played between Anson Wong (home) and Tom Williamson (away).Match won by Anson Wong. Result: 11-5,11-8,11-9:11-5,11-7,11-6:6-11,11-6,11-5,11-7:9-11,11-4,11-7,11-8:4-11,11-9,8-11,6-11. Starting level for Anson Wong: 5,713, level confidence: 81%. Set manually. Starting level for Tom Williamson: 5,062, level confidence: 39%. Anson Wong to win as he is currently playing 13% better than Tom Williamson. Anson Wong won all of the games and 60% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Anson Wong played 52% better than Tom Williamson in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Anson Wong actually played at a level of 6,622 and Tom Williamson at a level of 4,367. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Anson Wong changes to +7.2% and Tom Williamson changes to -15%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Anson Wong becomes +2.9% and for Tom Williamson becomes -5.1%. Given Anson Wong's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3% has been applied to his level change. Given Tom Williamson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2023/2024' so the adjustment for Anson Wong is +2.1% and for Tom Williamson is -3.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Anson Wong: 90%, Tom Williamson: 63%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Anson Wong: 78%, Tom Williamson: 54%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Anson Wong: 5,823, level confidence: 78%. Final level for Tom Williamson: 4,871, level confidence: 54%. Notes
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