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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: University of Bath 1 v Avon West / Centre For Sport - K1 (Wed 06 Mar 2024)Match played between Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan (home) and Stella Kaufmann (away).Match won by Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan. Result: 6-11,11-6,11-5,11-7. Starting level for Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan: 4,933, level confidence: 49%. Starting level for Stella Kaufmann: 3,411, level confidence: 79%. Set manually. Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan to win as he is currently playing 45% better than Stella Kaufmann. Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan won 75% of the games and 57% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 34% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan played 28% better than Stella Kaufmann in this match. As Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan has played below his allowed range at 4,429, his level reduction is 1.3% before damping. On the assumption that Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan would normally have been playing at level 4,730 (based on typical behaviour), Stella Kaufmann played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.1% and 3.3% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan changes to -1.1% and Stella Kaufmann changes to +2.1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan becomes -0.7% and for Stella Kaufmann becomes +1.4%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2023/2024' so the adjustment for Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan is -0.5% and for Stella Kaufmann is +1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan: 70%, Stella Kaufmann: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan: 66%, Stella Kaufmann: 84%. A final adjustment of +2.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Vasudef 'Brad Pitt' Vasanthan: 4,924, level confidence: 66%. Final level for Stella Kaufmann: 3,583, level confidence: 84%. Notes
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