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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: Avon West / Centre For Sport - K1 v University of Bath 1 (Thu 25 Apr 2024)Match played between Mateusz Marcinkowski (home) and Anson Wong (away).Match won by Mateusz Marcinkowski. Result: 11-7,11-6,11-2:4-11,11-8,2-11,14-16:11-4,11-6,11-8:11-7,11-4,11-7:14-16,8-11,11-9,11-3,8-11. Starting level for Mateusz Marcinkowski: 9,185, level confidence: 58%. Starting level for Anson Wong: 5,400, level confidence: 70%. Set manually. Mateusz Marcinkowski to win as he is currently playing 70% better than Anson Wong. Mateusz Marcinkowski won all of the games and 69% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mateusz Marcinkowski played 120% better than Anson Wong in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mateusz Marcinkowski actually played at a level of 10,446 and Anson Wong at a level of 4,748. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.3% and 10.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mateusz Marcinkowski changes to +10.3% and Anson Wong changes to -8.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mateusz Marcinkowski becomes +3.3% and for Anson Wong becomes -3.2%. Given Mateusz Marcinkowski's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 15% has been applied to his level change. Given Anson Wong's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.7% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2023/2024' so the adjustment for Mateusz Marcinkowski is +2.2% and for Anson Wong is -2.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mateusz Marcinkowski: 76%, Anson Wong: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mateusz Marcinkowski: 67%, Anson Wong: 74%. A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Mateusz Marcinkowski: 9,369, level confidence: 67%. Final level for Anson Wong: 5,284, level confidence: 74%. Notes
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