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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: University of Bristol Ballers v Lansdown 2 (Thu 02 May 2024)Match played between Nick 'Or Tin' Benson (home) and Tim Jones (away).Match won by Nick 'Or Tin' Benson. Result: 12-10,11-4,11-6:11-5,11-5,11-7:6-11,7-11,11-5,7-11:14-12,11-9,9-11,13-11:5-11,11-9,3-11,3-11. Starting level for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 7,297, level confidence: 43%. Starting level for Tim Jones: 4,653, level confidence: 61%. Nick 'Or Tin' Benson to win as he is currently playing 57% better than Tim Jones. Nick 'Or Tin' Benson won all of the games and 63% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 70% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick 'Or Tin' Benson played 70% better than Tim Jones in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nick 'Or Tin' Benson actually played at a level of 7,597 and Tim Jones at a level of 4,469. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.1% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.3% and 3.3% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson changes to +3.3% and Tim Jones changes to -2.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson becomes +1.7% and for Tim Jones becomes -1.4%. Given Nick 'Or Tin' Benson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 8.9% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2023/2024' so the adjustment for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson is +1.1% and for Tim Jones is -1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 66%, Tim Jones: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 63%, Tim Jones: 75%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Nick 'Or Tin' Benson: 7,370, level confidence: 63%. Final level for Tim Jones: 4,599, level confidence: 75%. Notes
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