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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 4: Avon West / Bristol Wanderers - K4 v University of Bristol Sharks (Tue 19 Mar 2024)Match played between Kathryn Field (home) and Silas 'La Remontada' Glover (away).Match won by Silas 'La Remontada' Glover. Result: 5-15,12-15,2-15. Starting level for Kathryn Field: 705, level confidence: 78%. Set manually. Starting level for Silas 'La Remontada' Glover: 1,315, level confidence: 69%. Silas 'La Remontada' Glover to win as he is currently playing 87% better than Kathryn Field. Silas 'La Remontada' Glover won all of the games and 70% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 137% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Silas 'La Remontada' Glover played 137% better than Kathryn Field in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Silas 'La Remontada' Glover actually played at a level of 1,482 and Kathryn Field at a level of 626. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9% and 9.1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Silas 'La Remontada' Glover changes to +9% and Kathryn Field changes to -7.9%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Silas 'La Remontada' Glover becomes +5.3% and for Kathryn Field becomes -5.5%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2023/2024' so the adjustment for Silas 'La Remontada' Glover is +4% and for Kathryn Field is -4.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Silas 'La Remontada' Glover: 83%, Kathryn Field: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Silas 'La Remontada' Glover: 74%, Kathryn Field: 79%. A final adjustment of +0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Kathryn Field: 677, level confidence: 79%. Final level for Silas 'La Remontada' Glover: 1,389, level confidence: 74%. Notes
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