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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Lansdown 3 v Thornbury A (Wed 06 Mar 2024)Match played between Alisdair Wriglesworth (home) and Craig Rimmer (away).Match won by Alisdair Wriglesworth. Result: 15-13,15-7,15-5. Starting level for Alisdair Wriglesworth: 2,971, level confidence: 68%. Starting level for Craig Rimmer: 3,092, level confidence: 80%. Set manually. Craig Rimmer to win as he is currently playing 4% better than Alisdair Wriglesworth. Alisdair Wriglesworth won all of the games and 64% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 80% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alisdair Wriglesworth played 80% better than Craig Rimmer in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alisdair Wriglesworth actually played at a level of 4,066 and Craig Rimmer at a level of 2,259. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 37% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alisdair Wriglesworth changes to +36% and Craig Rimmer changes to -29%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alisdair Wriglesworth becomes +12.1% and for Craig Rimmer becomes -10.1%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2023/2024' so the adjustment for Alisdair Wriglesworth is +9.1% and for Craig Rimmer is -7.4%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Craig Rimmer is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alisdair Wriglesworth: 83%, Craig Rimmer: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alisdair Wriglesworth: 60%, Craig Rimmer: 65%. A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Alisdair Wriglesworth: 3,237, level confidence: 60%. Final level for Craig Rimmer: 2,979, level confidence: 65%. Notes
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