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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Lansdown 3 v BAWA A (Wed 17 Apr 2024)Match played between Kevin Mountford (home) and Richard Colman (away).Match won by Richard Colman. Result: 6-15,9-15,10-15:7-15,11-15,11-15:11-15,12-15,13-15:15-17,12-15,6-15:?-?. Starting level for Kevin Mountford: 2,842, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Starting level for Richard Colman: 5,067, level confidence: 86%. Set manually. Richard Colman to win as he is currently playing 78% better than Kevin Mountford. Richard Colman won all of the games and 64% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 80% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richard Colman played 80% better than Kevin Mountford in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Richard Colman actually played at a level of 5,091 and Kevin Mountford at a level of 2,828. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.5% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.4% and 0.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richard Colman changes to +0.3% and Kevin Mountford changes to -0.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richard Colman becomes +0.2% and for Kevin Mountford becomes 0%. Given Richard Colman's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2023/2024' so the adjustment for Richard Colman is 0% and for Kevin Mountford is 0%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richard Colman: 93%, Kevin Mountford: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richard Colman: 92%, Kevin Mountford: 88%. A final adjustment of +0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Kevin Mountford: 2,869, level confidence: 88%. Final level for Richard Colman: 5,077, level confidence: 92%. Notes
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