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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 5: Workout Harbourside 5 v BAWA / Kingswood (Wed 27 Mar 2024)Match played between Jon Sellers (home) and Andy Milbourne (away).Match won by Jon Sellers. Result: 15-11,15-10,15-5:9-15,15-12,10-15,15-6,15-1:15-8,13-15,13-15,11-15:15-1,15-3,15-5:15-5,15-2,15-3. Starting level for Jon Sellers: 1,191, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Starting level for Andy Milbourne: 1,274, level confidence: 54%. Andy Milbourne to win as he is currently playing 7% better than Jon Sellers. Jon Sellers won all of the games and 63% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 73% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jon Sellers played 73% better than Andy Milbourne in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jon Sellers actually played at a level of 1,621 and Andy Milbourne at a level of 936. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 36% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jon Sellers changes to +25% and Andy Milbourne changes to -35%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jon Sellers becomes +12.3% and for Andy Milbourne becomes -16%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2023/2024' so the adjustment for Jon Sellers is +9.2% and for Andy Milbourne is -12%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Andy Milbourne is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jon Sellers: 87%, Andy Milbourne: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jon Sellers: 64%, Andy Milbourne: 54%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jon Sellers: 1,299, level confidence: 64%. Final level for Andy Milbourne: 1,212, level confidence: 54%. Notes
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