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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 5: University of Bath 4 v Workout Harbourside 5 (Wed 24 Apr 2024)Match played between Henry 'Tony' Barton-Smith (home) and Anna-Jane Singh (away).Match won by Henry 'Tony' Barton-Smith. Result: 15-7,15-7,15-11. Starting level for Henry 'Tony' Barton-Smith: 1,114, level confidence: 66%. Starting level for Anna-Jane Singh: 846, level confidence: 61%. Henry 'Tony' Barton-Smith to win as he is currently playing 32% better than Anna-Jane Singh. Henry 'Tony' Barton-Smith won all of the games and 64% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 80% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Henry 'Tony' Barton-Smith played 80% better than Anna-Jane Singh in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Henry 'Tony' Barton-Smith actually played at a level of 1,302 and Anna-Jane Singh at a level of 724. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 15% and 15% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Henry 'Tony' Barton-Smith changes to +14% and Anna-Jane Singh changes to -15%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Henry 'Tony' Barton-Smith becomes +7.8% and for Anna-Jane Singh becomes -8.7%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2023/2024' so the adjustment for Henry 'Tony' Barton-Smith is +5.8% and for Anna-Jane Singh is -6.4%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Anna-Jane Singh is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Henry 'Tony' Barton-Smith: 81%, Anna-Jane Singh: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Henry 'Tony' Barton-Smith: 69%, Anna-Jane Singh: 67%. A final adjustment of +3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Henry 'Tony' Barton-Smith: 1,285, level confidence: 69%. Final level for Anna-Jane Singh: 784, level confidence: 67%. Notes
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