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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 6: University of Bath 5 v Weston Donkeys (Wed 07 Feb 2024)Match played between Matthew Quayle (home) and Tom Farrant (away).Match won by Matthew Quayle. Result: 15-6,15-9,15-10. Starting level for Matthew Quayle: 999, level confidence: 32%. Starting level for Tom Farrant: 426, level confidence: 55%. Matthew Quayle to win as he is currently playing 135% better than Tom Farrant. Matthew Quayle won all of the games and 64% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 80% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matthew Quayle played 80% better than Tom Farrant in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Matthew Quayle was taking it easy by anything up to 17%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 661 and 999 without affecting his level. In this case, Matthew Quayle played at level 799 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Matthew Quayle would normally have been playing at level 832 (based on typical behaviour), Tom Farrant played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.1%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matthew Quayle changes to 0% and Tom Farrant changes to +1.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matthew Quayle becomes 0% and for Tom Farrant becomes +1.5%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2023/2024' so the adjustment for Matthew Quayle is 0% and for Tom Farrant is +1.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matthew Quayle: 56%, Tom Farrant: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matthew Quayle: 49%, Tom Farrant: 65%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Matthew Quayle: 998, level confidence: 49%. Final level for Tom Farrant: 430, level confidence: 65%. Notes
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