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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 6: Lansdown 5 v University of Bristol Fresh (Wed 01 May 2024)Match played between George Jensen (home) and Silas 'La Remontada' Glover (away).Match won by Silas 'La Remontada' Glover. Result: 5-15,11-15,6-15. Starting level for George Jensen: 755, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Starting level for Silas 'La Remontada' Glover: 1,411, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Silas 'La Remontada' Glover to win as he is currently playing 87% better than George Jensen. Silas 'La Remontada' Glover won all of the games and 67% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 105% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Silas 'La Remontada' Glover played 105% better than George Jensen in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Silas 'La Remontada' Glover actually played at a level of 1,476 and George Jensen at a level of 722. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.6% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.3% and 3.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Silas 'La Remontada' Glover changes to +3.3% and George Jensen changes to -3.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Silas 'La Remontada' Glover becomes +2.7% and for George Jensen becomes -3.2%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2023/2024' so the adjustment for Silas 'La Remontada' Glover is +2.1% and for George Jensen is -2.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Silas 'La Remontada' Glover: 86%, George Jensen: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Silas 'La Remontada' Glover: 83%, George Jensen: 83%. A final adjustment of +0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for George Jensen: 740, level confidence: 83%. Final level for Silas 'La Remontada' Glover: 1,461, level confidence: 83%. Notes
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