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Login: | Explaining level changesBen 'Burger' Knight v Rob Jeeves (Wed 01 May 2024)Match won by Rob Jeeves. Result: 8-11,8-11,15-13,12-10,2-11.Starting level for Ben 'Burger' Knight: 2,597, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Starting level for Rob Jeeves: 3,810, level confidence: 70%. Set manually. Rob Jeeves to win as he is currently playing 47% better than Ben 'Burger' Knight. Rob Jeeves won 60% of the games and 55% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob Jeeves played 14% better than Ben 'Burger' Knight in this match. As Rob Jeeves has played below his allowed range at 3,170, his level reduction is 7.4% before damping. On the assumption that Rob Jeeves would normally have been playing at level 3,643 (based on typical behaviour), Ben 'Burger' Knight played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 11%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6% and 9.1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob Jeeves changes to -6% and Ben 'Burger' Knight changes to +8.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob Jeeves becomes -2.8% and for Ben 'Burger' Knight becomes +4%. Given Rob Jeeves's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 32% has been applied to his level change. Given Ben 'Burger' Knight's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 11% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Green Boxes' so the adjustment for Rob Jeeves is -1.1% and for Ben 'Burger' Knight is +1.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob Jeeves: 84%, Ben 'Burger' Knight: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob Jeeves: 74%, Ben 'Burger' Knight: 77%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Ben 'Burger' Knight: 2,639, level confidence: 77%. Final level for Rob Jeeves: 3,764, level confidence: 74%. Notes
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