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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier: Redland Summer A v Redland Summer C (Wed 24 Jul 2024)Match played between Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe (home) and Ian Fenner-Evans (away).Match won by Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe. Result: 11-3,10-12,11-9,13-11:11-8,14-12,11-4:3-11,6-11,11-9,4-11:?-?. Starting level for Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe: 7,322, level confidence: 45%. Starting level for Ian Fenner-Evans: 4,219, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe to win as he is currently playing 74% better than Ian Fenner-Evans. Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe won 75% of the games and 56% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe played 26% better than Ian Fenner-Evans in this match. As Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe has played below his allowed range at 5,648, his level reduction is 6.1% before damping. On the assumption that Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe would normally have been playing at level 6,723 (based on typical behaviour), Ian Fenner-Evans played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.5% and 9.3% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe changes to -4.5% and Ian Fenner-Evans changes to +5.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe becomes -2% and for Ian Fenner-Evans becomes +2.6%. Given Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 17% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2023/2024' so the adjustment for Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe is -1.1% and for Ian Fenner-Evans is +1.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe: 67%, Ian Fenner-Evans: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe: 57%, Ian Fenner-Evans: 73%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Isaac ‘Sp’ Rawcliffe: 7,231, level confidence: 57%. Final level for Ian Fenner-Evans: 4,285, level confidence: 73%. Notes
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