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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier: Workout Harbourside Summer 1 v Lansdown Summer A (Wed 26 Jun 2024)Match played between Harvey Von Biel (home) and Jake Vickery (away).Match won by Harvey Von Biel. Result: 11-6,11-3,11-9:10-12,3-11,5-11:12-10,11-9,8-11,11-7:11-9,12-14,5-11,7-11. Starting level for Harvey Von Biel: 7,913, level confidence: 60%. Starting level for Jake Vickery: 4,649, level confidence: 64%. Harvey Von Biel to win as he is currently playing 70% better than Jake Vickery. Harvey Von Biel won all of the games and 65% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harvey Von Biel played 83% better than Jake Vickery in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Harvey Von Biel actually played at a level of 8,212 and Jake Vickery at a level of 4,480. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.8% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.9% and 2.9% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harvey Von Biel changes to +2.9% and Jake Vickery changes to -2.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harvey Von Biel becomes +1.5% and for Jake Vickery becomes -1.6%. Given Harvey Von Biel's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 21% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2023/2024' so the adjustment for Harvey Von Biel is +0.8% and for Jake Vickery is -1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harvey Von Biel: 77%, Jake Vickery: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harvey Von Biel: 74%, Jake Vickery: 77%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Harvey Von Biel: 7,964, level confidence: 74%. Final level for Jake Vickery: 4,594, level confidence: 77%. Notes
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