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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier: Redland Summer A v Lansdown Summer A (Wed 29 May 2024)Match played between Phil Reddaway (home) and Alisdair Wriglesworth (away).Match won by Phil Reddaway. Result: 11-7,8-11,8-11,11-8,11-1. Starting level for Phil Reddaway: 5,067, level confidence: 55%. Starting level for Alisdair Wriglesworth: 3,371, level confidence: 69%. Phil Reddaway to win as he is currently playing 50% better than Alisdair Wriglesworth. Phil Reddaway won 60% of the games and 56% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Phil Reddaway played 15% better than Alisdair Wriglesworth in this match. As Phil Reddaway has played below his allowed range at 4,175, his level reduction is 7.9% before damping. On the assumption that Phil Reddaway would normally have been playing at level 4,820 (based on typical behaviour), Alisdair Wriglesworth played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.4% and 9.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Phil Reddaway changes to -6.4% and Alisdair Wriglesworth changes to +7.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Phil Reddaway becomes -2.7% and for Alisdair Wriglesworth becomes +3.4%. Given Phil Reddaway's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.5% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2023/2024' so the adjustment for Phil Reddaway is -1.8% and for Alisdair Wriglesworth is +2.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Phil Reddaway: 74%, Alisdair Wriglesworth: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Phil Reddaway: 65%, Alisdair Wriglesworth: 72%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Phil Reddaway: 4,972, level confidence: 65%. Final level for Alisdair Wriglesworth: 3,441, level confidence: 72%. Notes
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