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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier: Avon West / Bristol Wanderers - Summer K1 v Workout Harbourside Summer 1 (Tue 18 Jun 2024)Match played between Ben 'Burger' Knight (home) and James Page (away).Match won by James Page. Result: 3-11,4-11,1-11. Starting level for Ben 'Burger' Knight: 2,200, level confidence: 10%. Starting level for James Page: 5,338, level confidence: 78%. Set manually. James Page to win as he is currently playing 143% better than Ben 'Burger' Knight. James Page won all of the games and 80% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 313% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Page played 313% better than Ben 'Burger' Knight in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Page actually played at a level of 6,960 and Ben 'Burger' Knight at a level of 1,687. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 30% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 15% and 19% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Page changes to +1.9% and Ben 'Burger' Knight changes to -19%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Page becomes +1.1% and for Ben 'Burger' Knight becomes -7.8%. Given James Page's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.7% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2023/2024' so the adjustment for James Page is +0.7% and for Ben 'Burger' Knight is -4.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Page: 88%, Ben 'Burger' Knight: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Page: 68%, Ben 'Burger' Knight: 24%. A final adjustment of +7.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Ben 'Burger' Knight: 2,339, level confidence: 24%. Final level for James Page: 5,528, level confidence: 68%. Notes
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