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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier: Westbury David Lloyd A v Workout Harbourside Summer 1 (Wed 05 Jun 2024)Match played between Richard Dodsworth (home) and Paul Frost (away).Match won by Richard Dodsworth. Result: 6-11,11-6,6-11,11-7,11-6. Starting level for Richard Dodsworth: 3,099, level confidence: 64%. Starting level for Paul Frost: 5,555, level confidence: 53%. Paul Frost to win as he is currently playing 79% better than Richard Dodsworth. Richard Dodsworth won 60% of the games and 52% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 10% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richard Dodsworth played 10% better than Paul Frost in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Richard Dodsworth actually played at a level of 4,350 and Paul Frost at a level of 3,957. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 40% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 29% and 28% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richard Dodsworth changes to +24% and Paul Frost changes to -28%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richard Dodsworth becomes +8.5% and for Paul Frost becomes -8.3%. Given Paul Frost's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.3% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2023/2024' so the adjustment for Richard Dodsworth is +5.5% and for Paul Frost is -5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richard Dodsworth: 80%, Paul Frost: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richard Dodsworth: 57%, Paul Frost: 52%. A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Richard Dodsworth: 3,289, level confidence: 57%. Final level for Paul Frost: 5,263, level confidence: 52%. Notes
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