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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier: Workout Harbourside Summer 1 v Westbury David Lloyd A (Wed 24 Jul 2024)Match played between Jack Alcock (home) and Tom Elgood (away).Match won by Jack Alcock. Result: 11-8,6-11,11-5,11-6:11-8,6-11,9-11,12-10,12-10:9-11,11-8,11-5,11-8:6-11,2-11,8-11. Starting level for Jack Alcock: 10,399, level confidence: 51%. Starting level for Tom Elgood: 7,173, level confidence: 69%. Jack Alcock to win as he is currently playing 45% better than Tom Elgood. Jack Alcock won 75% of the games and 57% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jack Alcock played 27% better than Tom Elgood in this match. As Jack Alcock has played below his allowed range at 9,247, his level reduction is 1.8% before damping. On the assumption that Jack Alcock would normally have been playing at level 9,967 (based on typical behaviour), Tom Elgood played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.7%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.5% and 3.9% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jack Alcock changes to -1.5% and Tom Elgood changes to +2.9%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jack Alcock becomes -0.7% and for Tom Elgood becomes +1.5%. Given Jack Alcock's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 37% has been applied to his level change. Given Tom Elgood's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 16% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2023/2024' so the adjustment for Jack Alcock is -0.3% and for Tom Elgood is +0.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jack Alcock: 71%, Tom Elgood: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jack Alcock: 67%, Tom Elgood: 78%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jack Alcock: 10,348, level confidence: 67%. Final level for Tom Elgood: 7,224, level confidence: 78%. Notes
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