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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier: Avon West / Bristol Wanderers - Summer K1 v Redland Summer C (Tue 04 Jun 2024)Match played between Ben 'Burger' Knight (home) and Rob Jeeves (away).Match won by Rob Jeeves. Result: 4-11,1-11,4-11. Starting level for Ben 'Burger' Knight: 2,622, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Starting level for Rob Jeeves: 4,029, level confidence: 66%. Rob Jeeves to win as he is currently playing 54% better than Ben 'Burger' Knight. Rob Jeeves won all of the games and 79% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 267% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob Jeeves played 267% better than Ben 'Burger' Knight in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rob Jeeves actually played at a level of 6,224 and Ben 'Burger' Knight at a level of 1,697. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 54% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 42% and 42% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob Jeeves changes to +42% and Ben 'Burger' Knight changes to -37%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob Jeeves becomes +12.5% and for Ben 'Burger' Knight becomes -13%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2023/2024' so the adjustment for Rob Jeeves is +8.1% and for Ben 'Burger' Knight is -8%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Ben 'Burger' Knight is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob Jeeves: 81%, Ben 'Burger' Knight: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob Jeeves: 52%, Ben 'Burger' Knight: 55%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Ben 'Burger' Knight: 2,497, level confidence: 55%. Final level for Rob Jeeves: 4,351, level confidence: 52%. Notes
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