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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier: Lansdown Summer A v Westbury David Lloyd A (Wed 07 Aug 2024)Match played between Mark Radley (home) and Tom Elgood (away).Match won by Mark Radley. Result: 11-5,11-3,11-3:13-15,4-11,11-6,9-11:11-7,6-11,5-11,11-7,6-11:9-11,11-8,8-11,5-11. Starting level for Mark Radley: 14,256, level confidence: 65%. Starting level for Tom Elgood: 7,081, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Mark Radley to win as he is currently playing 101% better than Tom Elgood. Mark Radley won all of the games and 75% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Radley played 200% better than Tom Elgood in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mark Radley actually played at a level of 17,402 and Tom Elgood at a level of 5,801. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 22% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 14% and 15% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Radley changes to +14% and Tom Elgood changes to -13%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Radley becomes +3.9% and for Tom Elgood becomes -4.1%. Given Mark Radley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 60% has been applied to his level change. Given Tom Elgood's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 16% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2023/2024' so the adjustment for Mark Radley is +1.6% and for Tom Elgood is -2.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Radley: 81%, Tom Elgood: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Radley: 66%, Tom Elgood: 72%. A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Mark Radley: 14,517, level confidence: 66%. Final level for Tom Elgood: 6,941, level confidence: 72%. Notes
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