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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 6: Yate B v Workout Harbourside Summer 5 (Wed 24 Jul 2024)Match played between Gareth Eyers (home) and Kathryn Field (away).Match won by Kathryn Field. Result: 8-15,7-15,11-15. Starting level for Gareth Eyers: 588, level confidence: 66%. Starting level for Kathryn Field: 671, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Kathryn Field to win as she is currently playing 14% better than Gareth Eyers. Kathryn Field won all of the games and 63% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 73% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Kathryn Field played 73% better than Gareth Eyers in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Kathryn Field actually played at a level of 826 and Gareth Eyers at a level of 477. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 23% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Kathryn Field changes to +19% and Gareth Eyers changes to -22%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Kathryn Field becomes +10.8% and for Gareth Eyers becomes -12%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2023/2024' so the adjustment for Kathryn Field is +7% and for Gareth Eyers is -7.4%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Gareth Eyers is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Kathryn Field: 86%, Gareth Eyers: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Kathryn Field: 70%, Gareth Eyers: 66%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Gareth Eyers: 559, level confidence: 66%. Final level for Kathryn Field: 717, level confidence: 70%. Notes
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