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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2: Workout Harbourside Summer 3 v Gordano - Gordano (Wed 05 Jun 2024)Match played between Jay Bumpstead (home) and Steve Gale (away).Match won by Jay Bumpstead. Result: 15-6,15-7,12-15,15-6. Starting level for Jay Bumpstead: 1,041, level confidence: 51%. Starting level for Steve Gale: 1,620, level confidence: 69%. Steve Gale to win as he is currently playing 56% better than Jay Bumpstead. Jay Bumpstead won 75% of the games and 63% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 68% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jay Bumpstead played 39% better than Steve Gale in this match. An upset! Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jay Bumpstead actually played at a level of 1,531 and Steve Gale at a level of 1,101. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 47% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 36% and 36% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jay Bumpstead changes to +36% and Steve Gale changes to -24%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jay Bumpstead becomes +18.1% and for Steve Gale becomes -10.6%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2023/2024' so the adjustment for Jay Bumpstead is +12% and for Steve Gale is -6.7%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Jay Bumpstead is limited to +10% and Steve Gale is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jay Bumpstead: 71%, Steve Gale: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jay Bumpstead: 48%, Steve Gale: 57%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jay Bumpstead: 1,143, level confidence: 48%. Final level for Steve Gale: 1,541, level confidence: 57%. Notes
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