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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2: Gordano - Gordano v Workout Harbourside Summer 3 (Wed 14 Aug 2024)Match played between Edwin Swidenbank (home) and Jeff Heward (away).Match won by Edwin Swidenbank. Result: 15-4,15-10,15-4. Starting level for Edwin Swidenbank: 1,798, level confidence: 69%. Starting level for Jeff Heward: 1,222, level confidence: 87%. Set manually. Edwin Swidenbank to win as he is currently playing 47% better than Jeff Heward. Edwin Swidenbank won all of the games and 71% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 150% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Edwin Swidenbank played 150% better than Jeff Heward in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Edwin Swidenbank actually played at a level of 2,344 and Jeff Heward at a level of 937. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 30% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 24% and 24% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Edwin Swidenbank changes to +24% and Jeff Heward changes to -19%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Edwin Swidenbank becomes +10.3% and for Jeff Heward becomes -9.7%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2023/2024' so the adjustment for Edwin Swidenbank is +6.7% and for Jeff Heward is -6.1%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Jeff Heward is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Edwin Swidenbank: 83%, Jeff Heward: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Edwin Swidenbank: 64%, Jeff Heward: 71%. A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Edwin Swidenbank: 1,924, level confidence: 64%. Final level for Jeff Heward: 1,167, level confidence: 71%. Notes
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