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Login: | Explaining level changesKunle 'Thanos' Adeboye v Henry 'Hitman' Walker (Fri 28 Jun 2024)Match won by Kunle 'Thanos' Adeboye. Result: 5-15,15-6,15-12,15-11.Starting level for Kunle 'Thanos' Adeboye: 2,530, level confidence: 80%. Set manually. Starting level for Henry 'Hitman' Walker: 1,919, level confidence: 92%. Set manually. Kunle 'Thanos' Adeboye to win as he is currently playing 32% better than Henry 'Hitman' Walker. Kunle 'Thanos' Adeboye won 75% of the games and 53% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 14% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Kunle 'Thanos' Adeboye played 21% better than Henry 'Hitman' Walker in this match. As Kunle 'Thanos' Adeboye has played below his allowed range at 2,352, his level reduction is 1.1% before damping. On the assumption that Kunle 'Thanos' Adeboye would normally have been playing at level 2,468 (based on typical behaviour), Henry 'Hitman' Walker played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.9% and 2.6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Kunle 'Thanos' Adeboye changes to -0.9% and Henry 'Hitman' Walker changes to +2.2%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Kunle 'Thanos' Adeboye becomes -0.7% and for Henry 'Hitman' Walker becomes +1.7%. Given Kunle 'Thanos' Adeboye's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 10.1% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Autumn Boxes' so the adjustment for Kunle 'Thanos' Adeboye is 0% and for Henry 'Hitman' Walker is +0.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Kunle 'Thanos' Adeboye: 89%, Henry 'Hitman' Walker: 96%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Kunle 'Thanos' Adeboye: 86%, Henry 'Hitman' Walker: 92%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Kunle 'Thanos' Adeboye: 2,513, level confidence: 86%. Final level for Henry 'Hitman' Walker: 1,938, level confidence: 92%. Notes
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