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Login: | Explaining level changesKris Rogers v Phil Marchant (Thu 11 Jul 2024)Match won by Phil Marchant. Result: 10-15,12-15,15-10,10-15.Starting level for Kris Rogers: 242, level confidence: 67%. Starting level for Phil Marchant: 583, level confidence: 64%. Phil Marchant to win as he is currently playing 141% better than Kris Rogers. Phil Marchant won 75% of the games and 54% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 17% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Phil Marchant played 22% better than Kris Rogers in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Phil Marchant was taking it easy by anything up to 18%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 360 and 583 without affecting his level. As Phil Marchant has played below his allowed range at 326, his level reduction is 10.2% before damping. On the assumption that Phil Marchant would normally have been playing at level 481 (based on typical behaviour), Kris Rogers played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 27%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.8% and 17% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Phil Marchant changes to -3.8% and Kris Rogers changes to +16%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Phil Marchant becomes -3.4% and for Kris Rogers becomes +9.4%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Yate Club' so the adjustment for Phil Marchant is -1.7% and for Kris Rogers is +4.7%. As Kris Rogers has a provisional level, this match has been used to calibrate his level so Phil Marchant's level has been left unchanged. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Phil Marchant: 80%, Kris Rogers: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Phil Marchant: 57%, Kris Rogers: 58%. A final adjustment of -0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Kris Rogers: 262, level confidence: 58%. Final level for Phil Marchant: 554, level confidence: 57%. Notes
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