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Login: | Explaining level changesOliver Standeven v Chris Taylor (Mon 26 Aug 2024)Match won by Oliver Standeven. Result: 15-8,15-8,9-15,15-12.Starting level for Oliver Standeven: 542, level confidence: 80%. Set manually. Starting level for Chris Taylor: 216, level confidence: 55%. Oliver Standeven to win as he is currently playing 151% better than Chris Taylor. Oliver Standeven won 75% of the games and 56% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Oliver Standeven played 25% better than Chris Taylor in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Oliver Standeven was taking it easy by anything up to 19%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 322 and 542 without affecting his level. As Oliver Standeven has played below his allowed range at 295, his level reduction is 9.2% before damping. On the assumption that Oliver Standeven would normally have been playing at level 440 (based on typical behaviour), Chris Taylor played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 28%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.8% and 17% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Oliver Standeven changes to -1.9% and Chris Taylor changes to +17%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Oliver Standeven becomes -1.9% and for Chris Taylor becomes +9.6%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Weston Club Boxes' so the adjustment for Oliver Standeven is -0.9% and for Chris Taylor is +4.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Oliver Standeven: 89%, Chris Taylor: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Oliver Standeven: 63%, Chris Taylor: 52%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Oliver Standeven: 536, level confidence: 63%. Final level for Chris Taylor: 226, level confidence: 52%. Notes
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