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Login: | Explaining level changesJames Trevelyan v Corentin Pasco (Fri 30 Aug 2024)Match won by Corentin Pasco. Result: 7-15,7-15,12-15.Starting level for James Trevelyan: 264, level confidence: 61%. Starting level for Corentin Pasco: 600, level confidence: 82%. Set manually. Corentin Pasco to win as he is currently playing 127% better than James Trevelyan. Corentin Pasco won all of the games and 63% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 73% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Corentin Pasco played 73% better than James Trevelyan in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Corentin Pasco was taking it easy by anything up to 16%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 390 and 600 without affecting his level. In this case, Corentin Pasco played at level 480 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Corentin Pasco would normally have been playing at level 505 (based on typical behaviour), James Trevelyan played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.1%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Corentin Pasco changes to 0% and James Trevelyan changes to +3.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Corentin Pasco becomes 0% and for James Trevelyan becomes +3.2%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Westbury David Lloyd Boxes' so the adjustment for Corentin Pasco is 0% and for James Trevelyan is +1.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Corentin Pasco: 90%, James Trevelyan: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Corentin Pasco: 79%, James Trevelyan: 68%. A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for James Trevelyan: 269, level confidence: 68%. Final level for Corentin Pasco: 602, level confidence: 79%. Notes
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