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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Workout Harbourside A v University of Bath Ladies A (Thu 07 Nov 2024)Match played between Emma Coughlan (home) and Amelie Turpin (away).Match won by Emma Coughlan. Result: 15-8,15-4,15-8:15-3,15-7,15-4:10-15,15-6,15-9,15-5:15-5,15-3,17-15. Starting level for Emma Coughlan: 1,620, level confidence: 69%. Starting level for Amelie Turpin: 1,070, level confidence: 86%. Set manually. Emma Coughlan to win as she is currently playing 51% better than Amelie Turpin. Emma Coughlan won all of the games and 69% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 125% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Emma Coughlan played 125% better than Amelie Turpin in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Emma Coughlan actually played at a level of 1,975 and Amelie Turpin at a level of 878. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 22% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 17% and 17% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Emma Coughlan changes to +17% and Amelie Turpin changes to -14%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Emma Coughlan becomes +8.2% and for Amelie Turpin becomes -8%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Womans Autumn 2024/2025' so the adjustment for Emma Coughlan is +6.1% and for Amelie Turpin is -5.9%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Amelie Turpin is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Emma Coughlan: 83%, Amelie Turpin: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Emma Coughlan: 68%, Amelie Turpin: 76%. A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Emma Coughlan: 1,716, level confidence: 68%. Final level for Amelie Turpin: 1,014, level confidence: 76%. Notes
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