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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: University of Bath Ladies A v Redland Winter Panthers (Thu 14 Nov 2024)Match played between Amelie Turpin (home) and Alice Clark (away).Match won by Alice Clark. Result: 10-15,6-15,10-15. Starting level for Amelie Turpin: 1,014, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Starting level for Alice Clark: 1,327, level confidence: 87%. Set manually. Alice Clark to win as she is currently playing 31% better than Amelie Turpin. Alice Clark won all of the games and 63% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 73% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alice Clark played 73% better than Amelie Turpin in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alice Clark actually played at a level of 1,526 and Amelie Turpin at a level of 882. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 13% and 13% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alice Clark changes to +11% and Amelie Turpin changes to -13%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alice Clark becomes +6.1% and for Amelie Turpin becomes -7.9%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Womans Autumn 2024/2025' so the adjustment for Alice Clark is +4.6% and for Amelie Turpin is -5.8%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Amelie Turpin is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alice Clark: 93%, Amelie Turpin: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alice Clark: 81%, Amelie Turpin: 75%. A final adjustment of +4.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Amelie Turpin: 1,057, level confidence: 75%. Final level for Alice Clark: 1,387, level confidence: 81%. Notes
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