|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2: Kingsdown v University of Bath Ladies B (Thu 03 Oct 2024)Match played between Sandra Newth (home) and Abi Scott (away).Match won by Abi Scott. Result: 5-15,5-15,13-15. Starting level for Sandra Newth: 150, level confidence: 62%. Starting level for Abi Scott: 521, level confidence: 17%. Abi Scott to win as she is currently playing 247% better than Sandra Newth. Abi Scott won all of the games and 66% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 96% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Abi Scott played 96% better than Sandra Newth in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Abi Scott was taking it easy by anything up to 29%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 238 and 521 without affecting her level. In this case, Abi Scott played at level 329 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Abi Scott would normally have been playing at level 368 (based on typical behaviour), Sandra Newth played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, including some additional protection for the better player, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 6.2% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Abi Scott changes to 0% and Sandra Newth changes to +1.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Abi Scott becomes 0% and for Sandra Newth becomes +1.7%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Womans Autumn 2024/2025' so the adjustment for Abi Scott is 0% and for Sandra Newth is +1.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Abi Scott: 41%, Sandra Newth: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Abi Scott: 30%, Sandra Newth: 59%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Sandra Newth: 152, level confidence: 59%. Final level for Abi Scott: 520, level confidence: 30%. Notes
|