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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Workout Harbourside 3 v University of Bristol Chiefs (Thu 26 Sep 2024)Match played between Oliver Varco (home) and Max 'Small Talk' Hughes (away).Match won by Oliver Varco. Result: 15-11,15-9,15-13:15-10,15-4,8-15,15-8:15-2,15-9,15-5:15-5,15-11,15-10:?-?. Starting level for Oliver Varco: 3,429, level confidence: 45%. Starting level for Max 'Small Talk' Hughes: 1,544, level confidence: 45%. Oliver Varco to win as he is currently playing 122% better than Max 'Small Talk' Hughes. Oliver Varco won all of the games and 58% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Oliver Varco played 43% better than Max 'Small Talk' Hughes in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Oliver Varco was taking it easy by anything up to 15%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,365 and 3,429 without affecting his level. As Oliver Varco has played below his allowed range at 2,281, his level reduction is 3.7% before damping. On the assumption that Oliver Varco would normally have been playing at level 2,907 (based on typical behaviour), Max 'Small Talk' Hughes played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 15%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.3% and 9.8% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Oliver Varco changes to -2.3% and Max 'Small Talk' Hughes changes to +9.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Oliver Varco becomes -1.5% and for Max 'Small Talk' Hughes becomes +5.2%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2024/2025' so the adjustment for Oliver Varco is -1.1% and for Max 'Small Talk' Hughes is +3.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Oliver Varco: 67%, Max 'Small Talk' Hughes: 67%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Oliver Varco: 54%, Max 'Small Talk' Hughes: 54%. A final adjustment of -0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Oliver Varco: 3,388, level confidence: 54%. Final level for Max 'Small Talk' Hughes: 1,587, level confidence: 54%. Notes
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