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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Workout Harbourside 3 v University of Bristol Chiefs (Thu 26 Sep 2024)Match played between Tom Kingsley (home) and Silas 'La Remontada' Glover (away).Match won by Tom Kingsley. Result: 15-10,15-4,8-15,15-8. Starting level for Tom Kingsley: 2,681, level confidence: 47%. Starting level for Silas 'La Remontada' Glover: 1,461, level confidence: 45%. Tom Kingsley to win as he is currently playing 84% better than Silas 'La Remontada' Glover. Tom Kingsley won 75% of the games and 59% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Kingsley played 31% better than Silas 'La Remontada' Glover in this match. As Tom Kingsley has played below his allowed range at 2,020, his level reduction is 5.5% before damping. On the assumption that Tom Kingsley would normally have been playing at level 2,421 (based on typical behaviour), Silas 'La Remontada' Glover played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4% and 9.1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Kingsley changes to -3.8% and Silas 'La Remontada' Glover changes to +9.1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Kingsley becomes -2.4% and for Silas 'La Remontada' Glover becomes +5.1%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2024/2025' so the adjustment for Tom Kingsley is -1.8% and for Silas 'La Remontada' Glover is +3.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Kingsley: 69%, Silas 'La Remontada' Glover: 67%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Kingsley: 58%, Silas 'La Remontada' Glover: 57%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Tom Kingsley: 2,631, level confidence: 58%. Final level for Silas 'La Remontada' Glover: 1,512, level confidence: 57%. Notes
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